高质量发展下中国产业转型升级方向研究

产业不断转型升级是实现经济高质量发展的关键，从数量和质量两个维度可以总结出其具体路径。选取1985-2017年中国年度数据和1960-2017年美国年度数据，运用向量自回归模型对广义和狭义产业结构以及经济增长间的动态关系进行分析。结果表明，中美之间产业转型升级对经济发展的影响存在差异，据此可以得出高质量发展下中国产业转型升级方向，即拓展并细化产业转型升级维度;注重不同产业间的配比，尤其是生产性服务业和制造业配比;重视并确立制造业的根本地位;提升我国经济外向型程度。     

技术并购能够带来技术创新效应吗 ——收购公司成长潜力视角

选择2009—2017年我国A股高科技产业上市公司并购事件作为研究对象，考察技术并购能否给收购公司带来技术创新效应，以及收购公司成长潜力水平对技术并购与技术创新效应的调节作用，并进一步从两维度区分不同类型技术并购以检验其技术创新效应差异。结果发现：技术并购能够显著带来技术创新产出效应和技术创新促进效应；收购公司成长潜力越大，技术并购带来的技术创新效应越显著。此外，相对技术进入型并购，技术巩固型并购更能给收购公司带来显著技术创新效应，而国内技术并购与跨境技术并购带来的技术创新效应不存在显著差异。     

军民融合协同创新驱动产业园区高质量发展研究

军民融合产业园区高质量发展对于推进军民深度融合、在全国形成可复制可推广经验具有重要意义。军民融合协同创新通过促进新知识涌现、推进新产业集聚发展，最终汇聚经济发展新动能，驱动园区高质量发展。在提出军民融合协同创新驱动园区高质量发展的机理与组织框架基础上，将发展模式归纳为以分享经济为背景的资源共享模式、以新型研发机构为核心的第三方模式、以产业联盟为核心的产业链拓展模式和以交易平台为核心的“PPP”模式，最后提出相关对策建议。     

苏州工业园区建设世界一流高科技园区的战略对策研究

近年来,苏州工业园区大力实施创新驱动发展战略,在打造世界一流高科技园区建设方面取得明显成效。文章在阐述园区当前发展现状的基础上,剖析园区创新发展存在的薄弱环节,进而提出建设世界一流高科技园区的战略对策。     

Robust multivariate analysis for mixed-type data: Novel algorithm and its practical application in socio-economic research

We propose a novel method and algorithm for the analysis and clustering of mixed-type data using a hierarchical approach based on Forward Search. In our procedure, the identification of groups is based on the identification of similar trajectories and then linked to very intuitive two-dimensional maps. The proposed algorithm can use different measures for the calculation of distance in the case of mixed-type data, such as Gower’s metric and Related metric scaling. A key feature of our algorithm is its ability to discard redundant information from a given set of variables. The practical usefulness of the algorithm is illustrated through two applications of high relevance for empirical economic research. The first one focuses on comparing different indicators of environmental policy stringency in different countries. The second one applies our procedure to identify clusters of countries based on information regarding their institutional characteristics.     

基于SWOT-AHP的工业仓储用岛开发利用策略研究——以舟山群岛新区为例

本文采用SWOT分析法对舟山工业仓储用岛开发利用的优势、劣势、机遇和挑战进行定性分析,再通过AHP法进行定量分析,构建SWOT-AHP模型。通过计算舟山工业仓储用岛开发利用策略四边形,确定舟山工业仓储用岛开发利用应选择开拓型战略,即发挥自身优势、抓住外部机遇。     

区际产业转移关联溢出与产业高质量发展——对电子设备制造业的实证检验

基于我国区际产业转移大背景，使用1999-2016内地年30个省市、27个二位数工业行业数据定量测度区际产业转移，选择产业关联较强的电子设备制造业为研究对象，使用投入产出法识别关联产业、测算其关联产业溢出，利用2004—2016年内地28个省市面板数据构建模型对关联产业溢出效应与电子设备制造业转移的关系、产业转移中的关联产业溢出与电子设备制造业高质量发展的关系分别进行了实证检验。研究发现：①2014年中国工业空间基尼系数出现拐点，总体工业由之前的分散转移转为新的集中转移，而电子设备制造业仍处在向中部地区和西南地区集聚的分散转移中；②电子设备制造业转移中的产业关联溢出效应确实存在，且促进了电子设备制造业生产效率的提高和产业高质量发展；③产业转移中第三产业关联溢出效应对电子设备制造业分散转移的作用高于工业，但工业的关联溢出对电子设备制造业生产效率提升的作用明显高于第三产业。     

Real income convergence and the patterns of financial integration in the EU

We analyse real income convergence among the EU28 countries throughout 1995–2017 and the relationship with the convergence patterns of financial systems. We apply the nonlinear latent factor model of Phillips and Sul (2007, 2009) to real incomes and the IMF financial development indices for financial markets and financial institutions (Svirydzenka, 2016), and identify convergence clubs endogenously. We have several results. First, income disparities narrowed significantly over the last twenty years; yet, the growth convergence process lost momentum triggered by the global financial crisis and countries legacies shaped up asymmetries that have crystallised. Second, countries' financial systems exhibit high fragmentation, especially for financial markets, with the new EU member states at a lower financial development, confirming the existence of a two-tier Europe. Overall, the convergence patterns for real incomes and financial development are strongly correlated. Finally, the financial structure matters and market-oriented economies feature higher long-run growth, indicating the need to implement pan-European policy actions that increase the opportunities of risk diversification, enhance capital raising and channel large-scale financing to firms.     

Data vs. information: Using clustering techniques to enhance stock returns forecasting

This paper explores the use of clustering models of stocks to improve both (a) the prediction of stock prices and (b) the returns of trading algorithms.We cluster stocks using k-means and several alternative distance metrics, using as features quarterly financial ratios, prices and daily returns. Then, for each cluster, we train ARIMA and LSTM forecasting models to predict the daily price of each stock in the cluster. Finally, we employ the clustering-empowered forecasting models to analyze the returns of different trading algorithms.We obtain three key results: (i) LSTM models outperform ARIMA and benchmark models, obtaining positive investment returns in several scenarios; (ii) forecasting is improved by using the additional information provided by the clustering methods, therefore selecting relevant data is an important preprocessing task in the forecasting process; (iii) using information from the whole sample of stocks deteriorates the forecasting ability of LSTM models.These results have been validated using data of 240 companies of the Russell 3000 index spanning 2017 to 2022, training and testing with different subperiods.     

产业共性技术政府支持性研发外包合同影响因素研究

建立产业共性技术研发外包博弈模型，从政府视角研究以共性技术产出最大化为目标的最优政府支持性研发外包合同，并对最优外包合同影响因素进行分析。研究表明：足够多的政府预算是共性技术政府支持性最优研发外包合同存在的前提，最优合同条款随政府预算的增大而增多，企业保留收益增大倒逼政府预算增加；企业最优知识技术投入与共性技术价值系数以及从研发中分享的收益份额正相关，与政府支付的固定研发费用负相关；政府最优知识技术投入与固定研发费用及单位投入成本系数负相关；企业最优投入与政府投入成本系数负相关，与政府投入对研发成功的贡献系数正相关，且企业最优投入随其研发能力的增强而加大。最后，根据研究结论，从政府预算、项目前景及支持性资源分配3个方面提出共性技术研发外包合同实施的政策建议。